IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
West Virginia
Big 12
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+15.8	#7
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.6	#101
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+7.6	#18

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+8.2	#7

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	4.3%	4.8%	1.2%
#1 Seed	15.4%	17.0%	6.2%
Top 2 Seed	28.0%	30.7%	13.2%
Top 4 Seed	47.6%	51.1%	27.4%
Top 6 Seed	61.8%	65.7%	39.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid	81.6%	84.9%	63.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	78.0%	81.7%	58.9%
Average Seed	4.5	4.4	5.7

.500 or above	87.3%	90.5%	69.1%
.500 or above in Conference	77.5%	80.0%	63.0%
Conference Champion	18.9%	20.4%	10.5%
Last Place in Conference	2.2%	1.8%	4.3%

First Four	3.3%	3.1%	4.9%
First Round	80.3%	83.7%	61.1%
Second Round	63.5%	67.0%	43.5%
Sweet Sixteen	39.2%	41.8%	24.1%
Elite Eight	22.3%	24.0%	12.2%
Final Four	12.2%	13.4%	5.6%
Championship Game	6.2%	6.8%	2.7%
National Champion	3.3%	3.7%	1.1%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Neutral) - 85.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	3 - 5	3 - 5
Quad 1b	3 - 2	6 - 7
Quad 2	6 - 2	12 - 9
Quad 3	4 - 0	16 - 9
Quad 4	2 - 0	18 - 9

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	100	South Dakota St.	W	81-70	85%
Dec 02, 2020	199	Youngstown St.	W	84-63	98%
Dec 06, 2020	88	@ Georgetown	W	80-73	72%
Dec 09, 2020	212	Robert Morris	W	80-58	98%
Dec 13, 2020	53	Richmond	W	79-70	78%
Dec 18, 2020	71	Iowa St.	W	83-72	82%
Dec 22, 2020	4	@ Kansas	L	70-74	35%
Dec 29, 2020	116	Buffalo	W	88-73	91%
Jan 02, 2021	29	@ Oklahoma	W	76-75	52%
Jan 04, 2021	42	@ Oklahoma St.	W	74-72	57%
Jan 09, 2021	15	Texas	W	72-68	64%
Jan 12, 2021	2	@ Baylor	L	69-74	32%
Jan 16, 2021	69	TCU	W	74-63	81%
Jan 19, 2021	42	Oklahoma St.	W	77-69	76%
Jan 23, 2021	89	@ Kansas St.	W	73-66	71%
Jan 25, 2021	14	Texas Tech	W	73-69	62%
Jan 30, 2021	22	Florida	W	73-68	67%
Feb 02, 2021	71	@ Iowa St.	W	80-75	66%
Feb 06, 2021	4	Kansas	W	73-71	56%
Feb 09, 2021	14	@ Texas Tech	L	70-72	43%
Feb 13, 2021	29	Oklahoma	W	79-72	71%
Feb 15, 2021	2	Baylor	W	72-71	52%
Feb 20, 2021	15	@ Texas	L	69-71	44%
Feb 22, 2021	69	@ TCU	W	71-66	65%
Feb 27, 2021	89	Kansas St.	W	76-63	86%
Projected Record						17 - 8	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big 12 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.5	2.2	4.5	5.3	4.0	1.7	0.6		18.9	1st
2nd											0.2	1.3	4.1	5.7	4.6	1.6	0.2				17.7	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.1	1.8	5.0	5.4	2.3	0.4	0.0					15.2	3rd
4th									0.1	1.9	5.1	4.6	1.5	0.2							13.4	4th
5th							0.0	0.2	1.8	4.2	3.4	1.0	0.0								10.8	5th
6th						0.0	0.3	1.5	4.0	2.8	0.6	0.0									9.1	6th
7th					0.0	0.2	1.4	2.9	1.9	0.4	0.0										6.8	7th
8th				0.0	0.3	1.1	2.0	1.1	0.1	0.0											4.6	8th
9th			0.0	0.2	0.6	1.0	0.5	0.1													2.4	9th
10th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0														1.2	10th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.2	2.4	4.3	5.7	7.9	9.4	11.1	12.0	11.6	10.4	9.5	6.9	4.2	1.7	0.6			Total

Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.6		0.6
17-1	100.0%	1.7		1.7	0.0
16-2	95.4%	4.0		3.6	0.4
15-3	77.2%	5.3		3.8	1.4	0.1
14-4	47.3%	4.5		2.3	1.9	0.3	0.0
13-5	21.1%	2.2		0.7	1.1	0.4	0.1
12-6	4.2%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1		0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	18.9%	18.9		12.7	5.0	1.0	0.2		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.6%		100.0%	67.3%	32.7%	1.1		0.6	0.0																	100.0%
17-1	1.7%		100.0%	54.5%	45.5%	1.2		1.5	0.3																	100.0%
16-2	4.2%		100.0%	45.2%	54.8%	1.3		3.2	1.0	0.0	0.0															100.0%
15-3	6.9%		100.0%	38.6%	61.4%	1.5		4.2	2.2	0.4	0.1	0.0														100.0%
14-4	9.5%		100.0%	31.0%	69.0%	1.9		3.8	3.5	1.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0												100.0%
13-5	10.4%		100.0%	23.3%	76.7%	2.7		1.7	3.3	2.9	1.6	0.7	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0										100.0%
12-6	11.6%		99.9%	15.7%	84.2%	3.8		0.5	1.7	3.0	3.0	1.8	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		99.9%
11-7	12.0%		99.8%	9.7%	90.1%	5.1		0.1	0.6	1.7	2.4	2.7	2.2	1.2	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		99.8%
10-8	11.1%		97.1%	9.2%	87.9%	6.6		0.0	0.1	0.5	1.2	1.8	2.0	1.7	1.5	1.0	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.0				0.3		96.9%
9-9	9.4%		85.9%	6.4%	79.5%	8.3		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.9	1.2	1.2	1.1	1.0	0.8	0.7	0.2	0.0			1.3		84.9%
8-10	7.9%		55.2%	2.9%	52.3%	10.1				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.7	0.8	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0		3.6		53.8%
7-11	5.7%		21.1%	2.5%	18.6%	11.3						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0		4.5		19.1%
6-12	4.3%		3.9%	1.3%	2.6%	11.2						0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.1		2.6%
5-13	2.4%		1.5%	0.8%	0.7%	12.6													0.0	0.0	0.0			2.4		0.7%
4-14	1.2%																							1.2
3-15	0.6%																							0.6
2-16	0.3%																							0.3
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		81.6%	16.4%	65.2%	4.5		15.4	12.6	10.3	9.2	7.8	6.4	4.9	3.9	3.2	2.5	2.2	2.2	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0	18.4		78.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.3%	100.0%	1.1	94.6	5.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	1.0	100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	100.0%	1.2	83.6	16.4